Metals Show Mixed Performance, LME Lead Rises Over 1%, Polysilicon Falls More Than 3%, Lithium Carbonate Drops Over 2% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM April 28 Report:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic base metals collectively declined, though all drops were within 1%. SHFE zinc saw the largest decline at 0.99%, followed by SHFE nickel at 0.83% and SHFE tin at 0.63%. Other metals experienced minor fluctuations. The main alumina contract rose by 0.03%.

Additionally, the main lithium carbonate contract fell by 2.11%, the main polysilicon contract dropped by 3.05%, and the main silicon metal contract declined by 0.73%. The main European container shipping contract rose by 0.64%.

In the ferrous metals series, most prices rose, with iron ore declining by 0.49%. Stainless steel rose by 0.31%, HRC increased by 0.84%, and rebar gained 0.61%. Both coking coal and coke fell by over 1%, with coking coal down 1.66% and coke down 1.2%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:04, overseas base metals showed mixed performance, with LME lead rising by 1.16% and LME nickel increasing by 0.35%. LME zinc and LME tin both declined, with LME zinc down 0.42% and LME tin falling by 0.59%.

In precious metals, as of 15:04, COMEX gold fell by 0.09%, and COMEX silver dropped by 0.85%. Domestically, SHFE gold declined by 1.44%, and SHFE silver fell by 1.52%.

Market conditions as of 15:04 today

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Macro Front

Domestic Developments:

[Four Ministries Jointly Address Employment and Economic Stability] ① Zhao Chenxin, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high-quality development; ② Yu Jiadong, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: In Q1, 3.08 million new urban jobs were created nationwide; ③ Sheng Qiuping, Ministry of Commerce: The trade-in policy for consumer goods has collectively boosted consumption by over 720 billion yuan; ④ Zou Lan, People's Bank of China: RRR cuts and interest rate adjustments will be implemented in a timely manner based on domestic and international economic conditions and financial market performance. 》Click for details

[Pan Gongsheng: Implementing Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy to Promote High-Quality Economic Development in China]The State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10 a.m. today, featuring Zhao Chenxin, Deputy Director of the NDRC, Yu Jiadong, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Sheng Qiuping, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Commerce, and Zou Lan, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, to introduce policy measures for stabilizing employment, the economy, and promoting high-quality development, and to answer questions from reporters. Zhao Chenxin, NDRC: China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high-quality development; Yu Jiadong, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: In Q1, 3.08 million new urban jobs were created nationwide; Sheng Qiuping, Ministry of Commerce: The trade-in policy for consumer goods has collectively boosted consumption by over 720 billion yuan; Zou Lan, People's Bank of China: RRR cuts and interest rate adjustments will be implemented in a timely manner based on domestic and international economic conditions and financial market performance. 》Click for details

►The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market as of 15:04 today was 7.2043 yuan per US dollar.

US Dollar Developments:

As of 15:04, the US dollar index rose by 0.15%. The final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the US was 52.2, the lowest since July 2022, with expectations at 50.8, a preliminary reading of 50.8, and a March final reading of 57.0. The final one-year inflation expectations were 6.5%, the highest since January 1980, with expectations at 6.8%, a preliminary reading of 6.7%, and a March final reading of 5.0%.

During the May Day holiday, key US economic data, including PCE and non-farm payrolls, will be released, which are expected to provide guidance for the market in assessing the future policy direction of the US Fed.

Data Developments:

Today, data such as the UK's April CBI retail sales balance will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting that Canada will hold federal elections.

Crude Oil Developments:

As of 15:04, oil prices in both markets rose together, with US crude up 0.44% and Brent crude up 0.38%. OPEC+ production increases will accelerate in May, with a monthly increase of 410,000 barrels per day, equivalent to three months of production increases. The market expects OPEC+ to announce further acceleration of production increases at its May meeting. Additionally, Kazakhstan stated that the interests of oil-producing countries outweigh those of alliance members, potentially making it difficult to strictly adhere to compensatory production cut plans. The next meeting will be held on May 5, with the market focusing on whether OPEC+ will accelerate the pace of production cut restoration in June. Coupled with a slight easing of geopolitical tensions, all these factors are putting pressure on international crude oil prices, making it difficult to find momentum for a rebound in oil prices.

US oil products are about to enter the seasonal peak demand period, with refining operations increasing due to advance stockpiling, leading to a seasonal rise in US gasoline crack spreads. The EIA report released last week showed that as of the week ending April 18, total US crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, were 840.581 million barrels, commercial crude oil inventories were 443.104 million barrels, total gasoline inventories were 229.543 million barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventories were 106.878 million barrels. Crude oil inventories were 2.32% lower than the same period last year and 5% lower than the five-year average for the same period. Gasoline inventories were 1.23% higher than the same period last year and 3% lower than the five-year average for the same period. Distillate fuel oil inventories were 8.32% lower than the same period last year and 13% lower than the five-year average for the same period. Currently, distillate fuel oil inventories are at historically low levels, and gasoline inventories are also undergoing destocking. (Comprehensive Wenhua Report)

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